Singapore Exports Rise 27.4% on AI Boom; Growth Forecasts See Steep Upgrade

Electronics shipments have powered Singapore to its strongest first-half export performance since 2010, triggering a sharp upgrade to the city-state’s trade outlook. Meanwhile, the government raised its full-year 2026 economic growth forecast after gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 6.1% over the first six months of the year.

Singapore’s key exports climbed 27.4% YoY in the second quarter of 2026. The surge reflects an intensifying global investment cycle in artificial intelligence infrastructure, which has driven explosive demand for semiconductors, computers and related electronic hardware.

Non-oil domestic exports, or NODX, accelerated from 9.6% in the first quarter, according to Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG). Electronics exports jumped 88.1% in the April-June period, compared with a 57.8% increase in the preceding quarter, while non-electronics exports grew 8% after contracting 3.5%.

The momentum lifted headline NODX growth to 18.6% for the first half of the year. The reading represents the strongest first-half NODX performance in 16 years, highlighting the country’s high sensitivity to global technology cycles.

In response to the stronger-than-expected first half and sustained semiconductor demand, EnterpriseSG revised its full-year NODX growth forecast upwards to a 14-16% range, a sharp rise from its previous projection of 3-5%.

The second-quarter electronics upswing was led by disk media products, which saw exports climb 182.5%. Integrated circuit shipments rose 91.9%, while personal computer exports increased 79.8%. Outside the technology space, pharmaceuticals, specialised machinery and measuring instruments were the primary contributors to growth.

Export demand was broad-based across Singapore’s main technology-linked trading partners. NODX to Taiwan surged 90.4%, shipments to South Korea rose 67.1% and exports to the US increased 58.9%.Electronics exports to the US more than tripled, rising 250.2%.

EnterpriseSG expects export momentum to remain supported through the second half of the year, underpinned by sustained demand for AI infrastructure, resilient forward guidance from major global electronics manufacturers and firmer prices for baseline technology products.

However, the pace of expansion is projected to moderate against a higher YoY comparison base. Looking ahead, escalating geopolitical tensions and the introduction of renewed US tariff measures remain the primary downside risks to the trade outlook.

2026 GDP Forecast Is Raised to 4.5-5.5%

Reflecting the external sector’s strength, the ministry of trade and industry (MTI) raised its full-year 2026 economic growth forecast to a range of 4.5-5.5%, up from its prior estimate of 2-4%.

The economy expanded 5.9% YoY in the second quarter, slightly outpacing the government’s preliminary estimate of 5.7%. This followed a 6.3% expansion in the first quarter, bringing aggregate GDP growth to 6.1% for the first half.

On a seasonally adjusted QoQ basis, the economy expanded 1.4% in April-June, accelerating from the 1.2% growth recorded in the first three months of the year.

The revision marks the second upward adjustment to Singapore’s 2026 growth outlook this year. MTI had previously raised its forecast range in February to 2-4% from an initial baseline projection of 1-3%.