Standard Chartered Sees Vietnam Growing 11% in 2027, Far Above ADB Forecasts

Standard Chartered expects Vietnam’s economy to grow 11% in 2027, putting the bank at the bullish end of forecasts for one of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economies and well ahead of projections from multilateral institutions.

The forecast is not new. In an assessment reported on July 20, Standard Chartered raised its 2026 growth forecast for Vietnam to 9.5% and said it expected the momentum to carry into 2027, when gross domestic product could expand 11%.

The bank also lowered its inflation forecasts to 4.4% for 2026 and 3.3% for 2027, and expects the policy rate to remain unchanged as authorities balance growth with inflation management.

What makes the 11% projection striking is the gap between Standard Chartered and other forecasters.

For example, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), in its July Asian Development Outlook, maintained its forecast for Vietnam at 7.2% in 2026 and 7% in 2027. Under those projections, Vietnam would still be the fastest-growing economy in developing Southeast Asia.

That leaves a four-percentage-point difference between Standard Chartered and the ADB over where growth could land next year.

Vietnam has, however, entered 2026 with considerable momentum. Its GDP expanded 8.18% YoY in the first half, growing from 7.63% in the corresponding period of 2025, according to Vietnam’s National Statistics Office. Its second-quarter GDP grew 8.39%.

Industry and construction expanded 9.81% in the first six months, while services grew 8.09%. Gross capital formation increased 15.2%, and exports of goods and services rose 20.18%.

Goods exports alone reached $266.52 Bn in the first half, up 21% YoY, even as imports rose faster, leaving the country with a trade deficit of $16.65 Bn. That performance helps explain why Standard Chartered has moved further towards the growth ambitions being set in Hanoi.

Vietnam’s five-year socio-economic development plan for 2026–2030 targets average annual GDP growth of at least 10%. For 2026 itself, the government is pursuing growth of at least 10% while seeking to maintain macroeconomic stability and control inflation.

Achieving that target this year can be challenging. With first-half growth at 8.18%, the government’s latest growth scenario calls for the economy to expand about 11.7% in the second half to pursue full-year growth of at least 10%.

The gap between forecasts also reflects different assessments of the risks surrounding that ambition.

The ADB has warned that higher energy costs, supply disruptions, weaker external demand and trade policy uncertainty could weigh on developing Asian economies. It also retained its 2026 and 2027 forecasts for Vietnam in July.

Inflation adds another variable. Vietnam’s consumer price index rose an average of 4.39% in the first seven months of 2026 from a year ago, while July inflation stood at 4.45% YoY.

For Vietnam, therefore, the focus is shifting from whether it can remain one of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economies to whether it can achieve sustainable double-digit growth.

Standard Chartered’s 11% forecast for 2027 suggests it sees the current expansion continuing at a much faster pace. The ADB’s 7% call points to a considerably more cautious trajectory.

The four-percentage-point gap shows how much more Vietnam needs to do for its double-digit growth ambition to become the norm rather than an exceptional year.